Who Will Lead Iran After the Ayatollahs? The Opposition Movement Explained

Introduction: The Regime Is Dying

Every authoritarian regime looks permanent until the day it falls.

The Soviet Union looked invincible in 1988. It was gone by 1991.

Saddam Hussein’s Iraq looked unshakable in 2002. He was in a spider hole by December 2003.

Assad’s Syria survived a decade of civil war. Then it collapsed in twelve days in late 2024.

The Islamic Republic of Iran will fall. The question is not whether. The question is when, how, and what comes next.

For Christians watching Iran through a biblical lens, this question matters enormously. Because what replaces the ayatollahs will determine whether Iran’s underground church — the fastest-growing church in the world — can finally worship openly. Whether Jeremiah’s promise to “restore the fortunes of Elam” (Jeremiah 49:39) takes its next step. Whether the God who has been building His church in secret will bring it into the light.

This article examines who the opposition factions are, what they want, and what a post-regime Iran could mean for believers.

Why the Regime Is Weaker Than Ever

Before looking at who could replace the regime, it’s worth understanding why the regime is crumbling. As of 2026, the Islamic Republic faces simultaneous crises on every front:

Economic Collapse

Iran’s economy has been devastated by decades of sanctions, systemic corruption, and the staggering cost of funding proxy wars across five countries. The Iranian rial has lost over 90% of its value against the dollar since 2018. Inflation runs at 40-50% annually. Youth unemployment exceeds 25%. The IRGC controls an estimated 20-40% of the economy through a network of companies, foundations, and front organizations — enriching the military elite while ordinary Iranians can’t afford basic goods.

For a deeper analysis, see: The Economic Destruction of Iran.

Military Humiliation

The June 2025 war with Israel exposed the limits of Iran’s military power. Israeli strikes targeted nuclear facilities, missile production sites, and air defense systems. The vaunted “ring of fire” — the proxy network Soleimani spent 22 years building — has been shattered: Hezbollah decimated in the 2024 Lebanon campaign, Hamas devastated in Gaza, Assad’s Syria collapsed, Houthi capabilities degraded by US and coalition strikes.

Legitimacy Crisis

The 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement — triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini in morality police custody — revealed that the regime has lost the younger generation entirely. Surveys by organizations like GAMAAN (Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran) suggest that fewer than 30% of Iranians support the Islamic Republic system of government. Among those under 30, the number may be far lower.

Succession Crisis

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is 86 years old and reportedly in poor health. He has ruled since 1989. No clear succession mechanism exists that commands broad legitimacy. His death could trigger an internal power struggle that destabilizes the entire system.

The Opposition Factions

Iran’s opposition is not a unified movement. It’s a constellation of factions with different visions, different leaders, different constituencies, and — critically — different ideas about what post-regime Iran should look like.

1. The Monarchist Movement

Vision: Restore a constitutional monarchy under Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last Shah.

Base: Significant support among the diaspora, particularly in Los Angeles. Growing support inside Iran among young people who romanticize the pre-revolution era.

Strengths:
– Reza Pahlavi is the most recognizable opposition figure internationally
– He has advocated for a secular, democratic Iran with separation of religion and state
– He has called for a national referendum to let Iranians choose their own government
– The monarchy brand carries historical weight — 2,500 years of Persian kingship

Weaknesses:
– Many Iranians — especially those who remember the Shah’s secret police (SAVAK) — distrust the Pahlavi name
– Reza Pahlavi has lived in exile since childhood and has no organizational infrastructure inside Iran
– A monarchy restoration could be seen as a step backward
– Internal divisions within the monarchist movement over how much power a restored monarch should hold

2. The MEK (Mujahedin-e Khalq)

Vision: Replace the Islamic Republic with a democratic, secular government led by the MEK’s political wing, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI).

Base: A disciplined, cult-like organizational structure centered on leader Maryam Rajavi. Offices in Paris, Washington, and several European capitals. Significant lobbying presence in Western capitals.

Strengths:
– The most organized opposition faction with actual military experience (fought alongside Iraq against Iran in the 1980s)
– Has an extensive intelligence network (they exposed Iran’s secret nuclear facilities in 2002)
– Well-funded with professional media operations

Weaknesses:
– Deeply unpopular inside Iran — the MEK fought alongside Saddam Hussein’s Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War, which killed hundreds of thousands of Iranians. Most Iranians view them as traitors
– The US designated the MEK as a terrorist organization from 1997-2012
– The organization operates with cult-like internal dynamics: mandatory divorce, personality worship of the Rajavis, suppression of internal dissent
– Their popular support inside Iran is estimated to be negligible

Christian assessment: The MEK’s history of violence and cult-like organization make them a deeply problematic potential successor. Their claims of democratic values are undermined by their authoritarian internal structure.

3. The Reformist Movement

Vision: Transform the Islamic Republic from within — maintain the system but make it less authoritarian, more accountable, and more tolerant.

Base: Iranian intellectuals, some clergy, former government officials. Associated with former presidents Khatami and Rouhani.

Strengths:
– Has operated within the system and understands its mechanics
– Appeals to those who want change without revolution
– Has some institutional legitimacy

Weaknesses:
– The reform movement is effectively dead. After decades of trying to change the system from within — and being systematically blocked, imprisoned, and marginalized by hardliners — most reformists have either given up, been co-opted, or concluded that the system is unreformable
– The 2022 protests and the regime’s brutal response ended any remaining credibility for the reform path
– Young Iranians overwhelmingly reject reformism as naive

4. The Secular Democratic Movement

Vision: Establish a secular, democratic republic — no monarchy, no theocracy, no MEK.

Base: Broadly distributed among Iran’s educated middle class, students, professionals, and diaspora intellectuals.

Strengths:
– Aligns with the aspirations of most young Iranians
– No single controversial leader to defend
– Compatible with international norms and Western democratic values

Weaknesses:
– No unified organization, no charismatic leader, no military capability
– Difficult to coordinate from outside Iran without organizational infrastructure
– Democratic movements historically struggle to consolidate power after revolutions — often losing to more disciplined authoritarian factions

5. Ethnic and Regional Movements

Iran is not ethnically homogeneous. Persians comprise roughly 60% of the population. The rest includes Azeris (~16%), Kurds (~10%), Lurs (~6%), Arabs (~2%), Baluchis (~2%), and others. Several ethnic movements seek autonomy or independence:

Kurdish independence movements in western Iran
Baluchi separatists in the southeast (Sistan-Baluchestan)
Azeri identity movements in the northwest
Arab movements in Khuzestan (the ancient land of Elam)

These movements could either fragment a post-regime Iran or contribute to a federal democratic system that protects minority rights.

What a Post-Regime Iran Could Mean for the Church

This is the question Christians should care about most.

Scenario 1: Democratic Transition

If Iran transitions to a secular democracy — whether monarchist, republican, or some hybrid — the underground church could emerge into the open. Religious freedom would likely be constitutionally protected. Farsi-language churches could operate legally. Bibles could be printed and distributed. Christians could worship without fear.

This is the best-case scenario for the church. But it’s also the most uncertain — democratic transitions are fragile, and Iran has no modern experience with genuine democracy.

Scenario 2: Chaotic Collapse

If the regime collapses suddenly — through a coup, internal implosion, or revolution — without a clear successor, Iran could descend into chaos. Syria’s post-Assad experience provides a sobering example: multiple armed factions competing for power, ethnic and sectarian violence, and extended instability.

In chaos, the church is vulnerable. Without rule of law, Christians could face violence from Islamist militias, local strongmen, or ethnic factions. But history also shows that the church often thrives in chaos — it provides community, hope, and moral order when institutions fail.

Scenario 3: Controlled Transition

If elements within the regime — pragmatic IRGC commanders, technocrats, or moderate clergy — orchestrate a managed transition (similar to South Korea’s democratic transition in the 1980s), Iran could achieve stability relatively quickly. Religious freedom might be expanded gradually rather than granted all at once.

This is the most realistic scenario for near-term improvement. The church would gain incremental freedom while the broader political system evolves.

Scenario 4: Islamist Successor

If a different Islamist faction replaces the current regime — Sunni extremists in border regions, or a different Shia faction — the church could face continued or even intensified persecution.

This is the worst-case scenario. But it’s also the least likely, given the comprehensive disillusionment with political Islam across Iranian society.

What the Bible Says

Scripture doesn’t tell us the specific political future of Iran. But it gives us principles that apply directly:

God Controls Regime Change

“He changes times and seasons; he removes kings and sets up kings.” (Daniel 2:21)

The same God who removed Belshazzar and installed Darius the Mede — in a single night — controls the timing and method of the Islamic Republic’s end. The opposition factions are real actors, but they operate within a script God is writing.

God Has Promised Restoration

“But in the latter days I will restore the fortunes of Elam, declares the LORD.” (Jeremiah 49:39)

Whatever political form post-regime Iran takes, God’s promise of restoration stands. The underground church is the spiritual infrastructure for that restoration. When the regime falls, the church will be ready.

The Church Doesn’t Need Political Permission

The Iranian church has grown from 300-500 believers in 1979 to an estimated 500,000-2,000,000 today — all under the most hostile regime imaginable. The church doesn’t need a friendly government to grow. It needs the Holy Spirit. And it has Him.

“I will build my church, and the gates of hell shall not prevail against it.” (Matthew 16:18)

If the gates of hell can’t prevail against the church, neither can the gates of Evin Prison.

How Christians Should Think About Iran’s Future

1. Pray for Peaceful Transition

Revolutions are violent. They consume the innocent alongside the guilty. Pray that Iran’s transition — whenever it comes — minimizes bloodshed.

2. Don’t Bet on Any Political Faction

Western Christians have a history of attaching messianic expectations to political movements. Don’t do it with Iran. No political faction — monarchist, democratic, or otherwise — will save Iran. Only the gospel does that.

3. Support the Church, Not Just the Revolution

When the regime falls, the international community will rush to support whatever political faction emerges. Christians should ensure that support also flows to the church — the institution that held hope alive when every political movement had failed.

4. Prepare for the Harvest

If Iran opens up, the harvest could be staggering. Millions of spiritually hungry Iranians who have rejected Islam but haven’t yet encountered Christ. The diaspora church and inside-Iran church will need resources, training, leadership development, and pastoral support on a massive scale.

Organizations like Elam Ministries, Pars Theological Centre, Transform Iran, and Iran Alive Ministries are already preparing for this moment. They need support now — before the door opens.

5. Trust God’s Timing

The regime will fall when God decrees it — not a moment before, not a moment after. Our job isn’t to force the timetable. Our job is to be ready.

Conclusion: The End of the Ayatollahs Is Not the End of the Story

The Islamic Republic will end. Every authoritarian regime does. The Soviet Union lasted 74 years. The Shah lasted 54. The ayatollahs have now lasted 47.

But the end of the ayatollahs is not the end of Iran’s story. It’s the beginning of the next chapter.

And the most important actors in that next chapter won’t be generals, politicians, or exiled monarchs. They’ll be the men and women who kept the faith in basements and living rooms, who whispered prayers in Evin Prison, who baptized new believers in bathtubs, who smuggled Bibles past checkpoints, who chose Jesus when choosing Jesus meant choosing prison.

The underground church is the infrastructure for Iran’s future. Not because the church is political — it isn’t. But because the church has built the only institution in Iran that is built on truth, sustained by love, and empowered by the Holy Spirit.

When the walls fall, the church will be standing.

“In the latter days I will restore the fortunes of Elam, declares the LORD.” (Jeremiah 49:39)

That promise was made 2,600 years ago. And the God who made it is faithful to keep it — regardless of which political faction holds power when the ayatollahs fall.

Sources

GAMAAN (Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran), surveys on Iranian political attitudes and religious identity, 2020-2024
Congressional Research Service, “Iran: Background and U.S. Policy” (Updated May 2025, R47321)
International Crisis Group, reports on Iranian opposition movements and succession dynamics
Human Rights Watch, reports on the 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement and regime response
Amnesty International, “Trampling Humanity” report on November 2019 protest crackdowns
Elam Ministries, reports on Iranian church preparedness for post-regime transition
Daniel 2:21; Jeremiah 49:39; Matthew 16:18; Proverbs 21:1; Isaiah 46:9-10